I'm really exhausted tonight, so this is shamelessly stolen from TaylorMarsh.com!Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday – and wins them by double digits
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th – and she wins Ohio by double digits
THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win
THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome
THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don't count; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan
THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over
THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton's supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls
THE PUNDITS
here is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race
THE REALITY
Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the race as Hillary Clinton
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day
THE PUNDITS
For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the people"
THE REALITY
The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to - super delegates
THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton
THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan's voters won't be heard and their delegates won't be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count
THE PUNDITS
Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters
7 comments:
New Hampshire - Correct.
Super Tuesday - I never heard any pundit say that. All the ones I listened to said it would be a split decision.
Ohio/Texas - I never heard she would lose, just that if she did the race would be over.(And she, at best, tied in Texas and lost in delegate gains)
The math - she needs to, to catch up in pledged delegates, win 65% of the vote or better in every contest remaining, something she has only done in Arkansas.
Pledged delegates - 170 pledged delegates isn't "marginal"
Popular vote - if home states don't count, drop New York and Arkansas from Clinton's tally too. Again, half a million is not narrow, plus it ignores the popular vote of the caucus states where he won 13 of the 14 contests.
Remaining states - I agree, no one knows what will happen.
Grassroots (yeah, I ignored one because I cannot speak to it personally) - more than 1 million individual donors, most of whom donated $200 or less vs. 32% of donors maxed out and significant PAC/lobbyist money. Doesn't say Clinton has no grassroots support, but Obama has the definite advantage.
Clinton should leave - it is even according to the one poll, yes.
Kitchen sink - What has Obama said of Clinton that isn't true? She lied about Bosnia. She hasn't released her tax returns. She hasn't released her earmarks requests. She has lied about Obama and his record repeatedly. Need I go on?
Will of the people - Obama has more than 50% of the pledged delegates, popular vote, and 60% of the states. If these aren't determination of "will of the people," what is?
Poaching pledged delegates - Reported by whom? Taylor Marsh? Clinton is actively campaigning that pledged delegates ignore their promise (we have to sign an oath, at least here in Missouri) to cast our vote for the candidate we chose. I know she doesn't hold much with signed oaths, but most of us do.
Florida and Michigan - Barack Obama had nothing to do with it; the Democratic legislators in both states willingly chose to ignore the threats of the DNC and are now facing the consequences. Obama has remained silent because it is up to the credentials committee to seat them, not him.
The last one - every? I never heard that. The Clintons do pride themselves on being political machines and running their campaigns very well. Which would mean that a belated swipe at Obama's pastor - something he has dealt with very effectively and she said she will not comment on - does appear desperate and calculated. And this is just the most recent example of such tactics.
John - the bottom line is there is no reason why Hillary Clinton should drop out of this race. It's a dead heat, and she has just as much chance of winning as does Obama. If you add MI and FL, which the Dems would be stupid NOT to count, she is ahead in the delegate count.
And there could be a revote in MI if Obama would direct his state campaign manager to allow it. Once again we see that "Mr. Uniter" really ISN'T.
And finally, I've been pretty much out of the loop for the past week -- which is an eternity in the world of news cycles, where the story changes every five minutes -- and Obama is STILL dealing with the Rev. Wright issue.
Republicans are certainly not going to let go of this should Obama become the nominee. A candidate who must deal with his spiritual advisor saying "God damn America" -- against a war hero is simply not going to play well. Super delegates need to think twice about this one.
BAC
He is dealing with the Wright issue as much as Clinton is dealing with the Lewinski issue...
Looking at the polling numbers, Wright had net 0 effect on Obama's numbers after Obama made his speech.
As far as Michigan goes, if you give Obama 0 delegates because HE followed his pledge and removed his name from the ballot, Clinton gets a 1 delegate lead (according to MSNBC, she is still down 17 according to CNN's numbers - I'm not sure how they got such different numbers, which include giving Colorado 10 extra delegates that CNN doesn't have). If you give Obama the 40% undecided, he still has about a 70 delegate lead on Clinton.
From what I understand of the Michigan re-vote plan, it would disenfranchise half the state and make a normally open primary closed. That is a major issue that Clinton's supporters were unwilling to compromise on and is probably what killed the idea. Just because the head of the Michigan legislature wouldn't give into Clinton's demands doesn't make him an obstructionist any more than Democrats filibustering Bush's bad legislation makes them obstructionist.
Hi BAC, it is indeed a very close race. I have said all along that the one who can BEAT MCCAIN is the one who should win. If the superdelegates base ther choice on anything, it should be that. Right now we don't know the answer to that. At the moment Obama would narrowly beat McCain according to polls, but that could change as we go on.
While some of the "Reality" statements are definitely true, others are slanted to Hillary. I think the truth is somewhere in between. But thanks for the reality check - we need to look at the race from both sides to ensure the best choice in the end.
Regarding Michigan and Florida, I blame the DNC for the whole mess. If they wanted to vote early, why not? By saying their votes wouldn't count if they did, the DNC messed up the whole primary season. Hillary conveniently left her name on the ballot in Michigan saying "It doesn't matter because it won't count." Obama took her at her word and didn't leave his on the ballot as the DNC requested. Now if Michigan counted after all, how is that fair to Obama?
Florida is less of an issue to me - Hillary won that contest, Obama was on the ballot, neither actively campaigned there. So if they counted Florida's delegates that would be a fairer situation even if not completely representative of what would have happened if both had campaigned.
As you probably know, I do favor Obama but I am not blind to his flaws or to the problems in this process. And I am also not blind to the fact that the race is very close. What bothers me most is the nastiness of the campaign and I hope both sides will realize this as it only empowers the GOP.
John how can you compare Lewinski to the Wright situation???? First of all Hillary Clinton had NOTHING to do with Lewinski, Rev. Wright is Obama's spiritual counselor. There is NO comparision of the two. If anything, Lewinski makes Clinton a more sympathetic candidate among some voters.
And let's set the record straight. Clinton and Obama BOTH followed the rules in Michigan. It was only Obama who possibly broke the rules by running national ads that were seen in Florida BEFORE the Florida primary.
If Obama is "Mr. Uniter" ... "Mr. Hope" ... then why did he and his people disenfranchise MI voters???
Clinton was absolutely right in supporting a revote. What is Obama afraid of?
BAC
I wasn't comparing them as equal, although your representation of Wright is completely wrong and takes all of his quotes out of context, which inflates it well out of Lewinski range. The reason I brought it up is that it is a controversy that Clinton herself can't shake even though it is about ten years old (and it is the least of the decade old controversies which would be drudged up after her nomination) - which was counter to your argument that Obama can't shake this brand new controversy completely. However, it clearly does not affect his poll numbers anymore.
Clinton followed her interpretation of her pledge and didn't care if it was stretching the oath because she felt it wouldn't matter. Now she wants to change the rules after it would go in her favor. If she was winning or had lost these states (impossible in Michigan since she was effectively the only candidate on the ballot) she wouldn't give two figs about these states delegations.
As for campaigning in Florida, Obama ran one ad nationwide on CNN. What does that get, 1mil viewers tops nationwide for any given program? Meanwhile, Sen. Clinton actively campaigned for Florida while not going in Florida by saying "Vote for me and I will make sure your delegates are seated." Then there was her broadly advertised "victory" party scheduled for after the primaries closed. Once more walking right on that line because "it won't matter."
Obama did not disenfranchise voters in Michigan or Florida, the Michigan and Florida Democratic leadership did it to themselves, knowingly. The Michigan legislator that stood against the re-vote plan (and it wasn't him alone) Clinton proposed because it would disenfranchise half of Michigan's voters and completely change the Michigan primary rules. If Clinton had told her supporters to negotiate for an open primary without all the rigmarole that was being proposed, something might have gotten passed before the legislature went out of session. Unfortunately, Clinton doesn't believe in negotiation and prefers "with us or against us" tactics. What is she afraid of?
John -- as usual you are completely wrong! No one cares about Lewinski except you, and a handful of other Obama supporters who are desperate to deflect attention away from Obama's short-comings.
And how many times do I need to remind you that CLINTON did NOT break the rules regarding MI and FL? And I will ask you again, what is Obama afraid of? Why is he blocking a revote?
And SPIN all you like John, the FACT remains that the ONLY candidate who broke the rules regarding MI and FL is OBAMA. My, how willing you are to overlook his actions.
It's not Sen. Clinton's fault that Obama isn't smart enough to recognize the Dems are going to need MI and FL in the fall. Oh wait ... I forgot ... he's counting on the Utah vote to put him over the top ... yeah, RIGHT!!!
Face facts, John ... "Mr. Uniter" is anything BUT!! God help us if he becomes the nominee. He will regret the day he had his MI state chair block a revote -- as he watches McCain walk away with MI and FL.
Obama is simply NOT ready for prime time.
BAC
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