It's amazing to me that Sen. Obama can say that he will be able to get Sen. Clinton's supporters to vote for him, but that she would not be able to get his supporters to vote for her.On Meet The Press this morning both Jon Meacham, Newsweek editor, and conservative pundit Peggy Noonan are convinced that Obama supporters won't vote for Sen. Clinton if she is the nominee, but that Clinton supporters are jumping at the chance to support Obama. Who are these folks taking to?
No one that I know who support Sen. Clinton is 'jumping at the chance' to support Obama. Many, like me, might hold their nose and vote for him ... but that's it. And ABC News reported that only 53% of Clinton supporters would back an Obama candidacy.
In a sign of just how divisive and ugly the Democratic fight has gotten, only 53% of Clinton voters say they'll vote for Obama should he become the nominee. Nineteen percent say they'll go for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and 13% say they won't vote.I think this is something the party, and the super delegates, need to take a look at as this contest moves forward. What is their plan?
Sixty percent of Obama voters say they'll go for Clinton should she win the nomination, with 20% opting for McCain, and three percent saying they won't vote.
When you consider that it was Obama's people who blocked a revote in Michigan, I think that is a problem for the party. And Florida voters, who strongly support Sen. Clinton, are not going to have their votes counted -- I think that's a problem for the party.
When you include Michigan and Florida in the delegate count, Sen. Clinton is one delegate ahead of Sen. Obama, and probably -- though I don't have the numbers in front of me -- ahead of him in the popular vote. What does all this mean? To me it means that regardless of what votes ANYONE decides will actually count, Sen. Clinton is in a dead heat with Sen. Obama. So there is no justification for anyone to ask her to drop out of the race.
And my final though on all this is to say Obama supporters, and his surrogates on television, need to think twice before claiming that older women, who register and vote in greater numbers than any other group, can be taken for granted.
3 comments:
The only issue of the Superdelegates and the re-votes just pointedly undermines the notion that we're getting something new and better with brand Obama old Brand X politics.
On that note, here's one of the things that had been nagging me about Obama's speech. The basic structural direction was vaguely familiar. As I thought about it I realized it tackles and shifts the issue the same way a classic earlier political speech does. Fundamentally, it is like Richard Nixon's Checkers speech.
It's easy to forget in the bile against Nixon for his more loathsome traits that he was a consummate politician and could be brilliant in his speeches. The Checkers speech employs an amazing bit of political ju jitsu that very much is in use in Obama's speech.
The problem, personal connection to something the public is leery of: Nixon receiving questionable donations. Obama connection to Wright and his sermons.
The switch, shift focus to more sympathetic relative: Nixon - well my little daughter Tricia got a puppy Checkers. Obama - well my grandmother said racist things.
The payoff, you wouldn't want me to punish them: Nixon - you can't ask me take the puppy away from her. Obama - you can't ask me to disown grandma.
Both neatly try to side step their own political hot water by making it look like criticisms of them would force them to be mean to more sympathetic family members.
That's an excellent analysis!
I agree with the "Checkers" analogy, too. But I have to confess that as one of the few (if not only White American Democratic blogger) who favors Clinton, I thought Obama's speech was excellent and went a long ways toward moving me off my ire and hoping that if he's the nominee he'll win.
I'm glad he made the speech but don't forget that Nixon as Ike's VP was accused of fraud and that's why he made the speech. Obama was responding to normal political pressure over a fairly standard campaign tactic which both sides had employed before. In a sense, I feel bad for the guy that a good speech -- very sensitive, sophisticated and sociologically aware -- has fallen flat.
Of course, I also like that in a way because I was tired of the rocking chair ride he had gotten and this is her last chance.
What I don't like is that she seems to have taken a very weird message away from the Ohio and Texas results. It troubles me that she's running for Brigadier General and not for the Democratic nomination for US president.
As far as my voting is concerned the question is moot. As a permanent resident alien of a foreign nation, I cannot vote. I believe that Howard Dean created this AmericansAbroad primary to cover all of us in the nominating process but we have no electors. Nor could I fill out an absentee ballot without committing voter and mail fraud.
For the record, if Obama's the nominee and I could vote, I'd probably vote for cynthia McKinney on the Green Party line for various reasons, although Obama has recently given me a reason to consider voting for him.
I don't care for Obama but I think right now he's taking a lot of heat for the wrong reasons.
Post a Comment