SueJ at
Nailing Jello to the Wall has a great post up about the mathematicians in the Obama campaign. Why don't I let her explain:
Dept. of Fuzzy Math
The Obama campaign has been helpfully doing the math for anyone who will listen, showing that Hillary Clinton cannot win enough delegates to secure the Democratic nomination. What they're not saying, though, is that neither can he. According to CNN, the current delegate tally stands at:
Obama: 1,520
Clinton: 1,424
Remember, it takes 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Basically, at this point neither one can win the nomination without the super delegates. The role of the super delegates is to use their own best judgment to vote for a nominee. That is what makes the m different from the pledged delegates. I understand the emotion behind those who would argue that super delegates should follow "the will of the people," but that's not their mandate. That's the role of the pledged delegates. Maybe we should get rid of the super delegates in the future, but I don't think we should force them to change the basis of their vote in this election, not at this point.
And next up, folks, is the Electoral College! That's right. There's some mighty fuzzy math coming out of the Obama camp concerning this issue, as well. From RealClearPolitics:
Add up all the states he has won in his historic drive to become the nominee, including all of those small and deeply "red" Republican states where the Obama supporters boast of their candidate's transcendental appeal, and so far Obama has won in places representing 193 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Add up Clinton's victories thus far and she has triumphed in states representing 263 electoral votes. (full story)
SueJ at Nailing Jello to the Wall has a great post up about the mathematicians in the Obama campaign. Why don't I let her explain:
5 comments:
The point Obama's campaign has been trying to make is that there is no way for Clinton to come close to Obama's total pledged delegates. This is the argument he has been making to the super delegates. Clinton is 140 pledged delegates behind (give or take a few depending on the Texas causcus). There are 12 contests left. She needs to net more than 11 delegates per contest, some of which don't have 11 delegates total.
I've already discussed the electoral college math, but just to put all the math out there I will do a state by state break down on my site. Feel free to come by and tear it apart.
BAC, thanks for the link.
john j., can Obama secure the nomination at this point without the super delegates? I'm asking in all seriousness -- I'm not sure.
If nothing else, this primary has been a wonderful civics lesson for America!
Its true, everyone knows, neither candidate can capture the 2025 delegates needed to get the nomination without super delegates (it's practically impossible from the beginning as super delegates account for almost 1/3 of the delegates to begin with).
Short of a miracle though, Clinton can't take the lead in elected delegates and will be lucky to close it to within 100.
Which then makes it a contest about who can win the states most needed in November. That would be Clinton.
BAC
And SueJ, you're welcome.
BAC
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